Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 9.098346e-05 0.000110 0.000130 0.000154 0.000179 0.000207 0.000238
2024-10-06 6.857828e-05 0.000093 0.000121 0.000154 0.000193 0.000236 0.000287
2024-10-13 5.562568e-05 0.000082 0.000114 0.000154 0.000202 0.000256 0.000322
2024-10-20 4.313277e-05 0.000070 0.000105 0.000150 0.000206 0.000271 0.000351
2024-10-27 3.618878e-05 0.000064 0.000101 0.000151 0.000214 0.000289 0.000383
2024-11-03 2.617619e-05 0.000053 0.000089 0.000141 0.000208 0.000290 0.000395
2024-11-10 2.417131e-05 0.000052 0.000092 0.000149 0.000225 0.000318 0.000437
2024-11-17 1.875992e-05 0.000045 0.000085 0.000145 0.000225 0.000326 0.000457
2024-11-24 1.409176e-05 0.000039 0.000078 0.000139 0.000223 0.000329 0.000470
2024-12-01 1.063232e-05 0.000034 0.000073 0.000135 0.000223 0.000336 0.000487
2024-12-08 8.066284e-06 0.000029 0.000068 0.000132 0.000223 0.000343 0.000504
2024-12-15 5.671383e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000127 0.000221 0.000346 0.000516
2024-12-22 3.154977e-06 0.000020 0.000057 0.000124 0.000226 0.000364 0.000554
2024-12-29 1.698701e-06 0.000017 0.000054 0.000124 0.000235 0.000387 0.000602
2025-01-05 8.438055e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000124 0.000243 0.000410 0.000646
2025-01-12 2.450163e-07 0.000011 0.000046 0.000121 0.000245 0.000424 0.000680
2025-01-19 6.181135e-08 0.000009 0.000044 0.000122 0.000255 0.000447 0.000726
2025-01-26 NaN 0.000006 0.000037 0.000113 0.000247 0.000447 0.000741
2025-02-02 NaN 0.000006 0.000038 0.000120 0.000266 0.000484 0.000806
2025-02-09 NaN 0.000004 0.000035 0.000116 0.000267 0.000495 0.000836
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000003 0.000030 0.000111 0.000265 0.000502 0.000859
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000002 0.000027 0.000107 0.000265 0.000512 0.000887
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000001 0.000025 0.000105 0.000267 0.000524 0.000917